@2024 Afarand., IRAN
ISSN: 2538-4384 Geographical Researches 2020;35(1):19-30
ISSN: 2538-4384 Geographical Researches 2020;35(1):19-30
Isfahan Metropolitan Resilience Predictive Model in Crisis and Unexpected Incidents
ARTICLE INFO
Article Type
Original ResearchAuthors
Khayambashi E. (1)Taghvaei M. (*1)
Varesi H. (1)
(1) Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
Correspondence
Address: Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Geographical Sciences And Planning, University of Isfahan, University Boulevard, Azadi Square, Isfahan, Iran Postal Code: 8174673441Phone: +98 (31) 37933087
Fax: -
m.taghvaei@geo.ui.ac.ir
Article History
Received: October 23, 2019Accepted: March 17, 2020
ePublished: March 18, 2021
ABSTRACT
Aims & Backgrounds
The prominence of Resilient Cities theory, presented in the joint chapter of Urban Planning and Disaster Management Knowledge, is a future-oriented approach to comprehensively look at all elements of community survival alongside a set of critical and controlling factors, especially human factors. Along this path, mathematical modeling enables the relevance and impact of components as well as the monitoring of the resilience foresight process. The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the existing resilience, determine the main factors and their effectiveness in promoting resilience of Isfahan metropolitan area by modeling.
Methodology The general method of research is descriptive-analytical and in terms of purpose, it is infrastructural and applied. To determine the dimensions and indices of measurement, and to further evaluate the resilience, 50 experts were interviewed using Delphi method and then data were analyzed using SPSS software and R programming, and results were presented in the form of “Multivariate Regression Model. Which was applied for six dimensions of resilience and the whole city.
Findings Surveys show high and direct correlation between indicators of “social”, “cultural”, “physical-spatial”, “natural environment”, “economic” and “institutional-legal” resilience, based on correlation analysis. Isfahan metropolitan resilience of 2.87, in the range of five levels, is almost average.
Conclusion The highest level of cultural resilience occurred at 3.08 and the lowest at 2.56 in the economic domain. Therefore, the first priority of planning resilience upgrades in terms of quantity is the “economic” domain and also the “institutional-legal” Dimension of 0.200 given the level of effectiveness in the “Resilience Upgrading Regression Model”, and the last priority in these two observation is ‘cultural dimension’ with respect to quantity and ‘natural environment’ with an impact factor of 0.147
Methodology The general method of research is descriptive-analytical and in terms of purpose, it is infrastructural and applied. To determine the dimensions and indices of measurement, and to further evaluate the resilience, 50 experts were interviewed using Delphi method and then data were analyzed using SPSS software and R programming, and results were presented in the form of “Multivariate Regression Model. Which was applied for six dimensions of resilience and the whole city.
Findings Surveys show high and direct correlation between indicators of “social”, “cultural”, “physical-spatial”, “natural environment”, “economic” and “institutional-legal” resilience, based on correlation analysis. Isfahan metropolitan resilience of 2.87, in the range of five levels, is almost average.
Conclusion The highest level of cultural resilience occurred at 3.08 and the lowest at 2.56 in the economic domain. Therefore, the first priority of planning resilience upgrades in terms of quantity is the “economic” domain and also the “institutional-legal” Dimension of 0.200 given the level of effectiveness in the “Resilience Upgrading Regression Model”, and the last priority in these two observation is ‘cultural dimension’ with respect to quantity and ‘natural environment’ with an impact factor of 0.147
Keywords:
Resilience,
Disaster Management,
Futures Studies,
Modeling,
Multivariate Regression,
Isfahan,
CITATION LINKS
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[32]Renschler C S, Frazier A E, Arendt L A, Cimellaro G P, Reinhorn A M, Bruneau M (2010). Developing the ‘PEOPLES’resilience framework for defining and measuring disaster resilience at the community scale. In Proceedings of the 9th US national and 10th Canadian conference on earthquake engineering. 2010, 25-29 July; Toronto. pp. 25-29.
[33]Rezaei M, Rafieian M, Hosseini SM (2016). Measurement and evaluation of physical resilience of urban societies against earthquake; case study: Tehran Neighborhoods. Human Geography Research. 47(4):609-623.
[34]Rockefeller Foundation (2014). City resilience framework (City Resilience Index). London: Arup Publiction.
[35]Shaw R, Team I (2009). Climate disaster resilience: Focus on coastal urban cities in Asia. Asian Journal of Environment and Disaster Management. 1:101-116.
[36]UNISDR (2015). Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015 – 2030. Geneva: UNISDR.
[37]Safaei H (2005). Seismic study of faults around Isfahan. University of Isfahan.
[38]Taghvaei M, Jozei Khamse Louie A (2018). Urban crisis management and emergency evacuation of schools in two metropolitan areas of Isfahan. Journal of Urban Management Studies. 10(34):27-44.
[39]Turner ll BL (2010). Vulnerability and resilience: Coalescing or paralleling approaches for sustainability science?. Global Environmental Change. 20(4):570-576.
[2]Adger W N (2000). Social and ecological resilience: Are they related? Progress in Human Geography. 24(3):347-364.
[3]Abbasi D, Khademolhoseiny A, Modiri M, Saberi H, Gandomkar A (2019). Analysis of the drivers explain the resilience of the city in the metropolis of Mashhad. Journal of Urban Social Geography. 6(1):109-122.
[4]Alshehri SA, Rezgui Y, Li H (2015). Delphi-based consensus study into a framework of community resilience to disaster. Natural Hazards. 75(3):2221-2245.
[5]Burton CG (2015). A validation of metrics for community resilience to natural hazards and disasters using the recovery from Hurricane Katrina as a case study. Annals of the Association of American Geographers. 105(1):67-86.
[6]Bank W [Internet]. Female labor force participation rate. [Published 2015, Cited 2016, 24 April]. Available from: https://data.worldbank.org
[7]Cutter S L, Barnes L, Berry M, Burton C, Evans E, Tate E, et al, (2008). A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters. Global Environmental Change. 18(4):598-606.
[8]Cutter S L, Burton C G, Emrich CT (2010). Disaster resilience indicators for benchmarking baseline conditions. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. 7(1).
[9]Cutter S L Ash K D, Emrich CT (2014). The geographies of community disaster resilience. Global Environmental Change. 29:65-77.
[10]Cimellaro G P (2016). Urban resilience for emergency response and recovery. Berlin: Springer.
[11]Carpenter S, Walker B, Anderies J M, Abel N (2001). From metaphor to measurement: resilience of what to what?. Ecosystems. 4:765-781.
[12]Davis I, Izadkhah YO (2006). Building resilient urban communities. Open House International. 31(1):11-21.
[13]Farzad Behtash M R, Key Nezhad M A, Pir Babie M T, Asgari A (2013). Evaluation and Analysis of Dimensions and Components of Tabriz Metropolis Resiliency.HONAR-HA-YE-ZIBA MEMARI-VA-SHAHRSAZI. 18(3):33-42.
[14]Folke C (2006). Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social–ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change. 16(3):253-267.
[15]Glemn J C, Gorden TJ (2009). Futures research methodology. Washington, DC: Millennium Project.
[16]Hatami Nejad H, Farhadikhah H, Arvin M, Rahimpour N (2017). Investigating the effective dimensions of urban resilience using structural-interpretive model case study: Ahwaz. Journal of Crisis Prevention and Management Knowledge. 7(1):35-45.
[17]Hafez Nia M (2007). Introduction to research in humanities. Tehran: Samt Publications.
[18]Isfahan Social Cultural Observatory (2016). Isfahan cultural and social identity card, phase One. Isfahan: Isfahan Municipality.
[19]Isfahan Municipality (2017). Isfahan Statistical Year book. Isfahan: Isfahan Municipality Publiction.
[20]Ketabchi E, Rasayipour M (2018). Urban resilience: Present of conceptual model of urban planning and management, architecture. Iranian Journal of Architecture and Urban Development. 1(1).
[21]Kazemi D, Andalib A (2015). Formation of the model framework to measure the urban disatser resiliency. 1st International Conference on Human, Architecture, Civil Engineering and City, ICOHACC 2015, 15 June; Tabriz.
[22]Khayambashi E, Zarabi A (2018). Future studies and strategic planning to achieve resilient cities. Socio-Spatial Studies. 2(4):38-53.
[23]Khazai B, Bendimerad F, Cardona O D, Carreño M L, Barbat A H, Buton C G (2015). A guide to measuring urban risk resilience: Principles, tools and practice of urban indicators. Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative (EMI), The Philippines.
[24]Morrow B (2008). Community resilience: A social justice perspective. CARRI Initiative: Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
[25]Murphy B L (2007). Locating social capital in resilient community-level emergency management. Natural Hazards. 41(2):297-315.
[26]Meerow S, Newell J P, Stults M (2016). Defining urban resilience: A review. Landscape and Urban Planning. 147:38-49.
[27]Norris F H, Stevens SP, Pfefferbaum B, Wyche K F, Pfefferbaum R L (2008). Community resilience as a metaphor, theory, set of capacities, and strategy for disaster readiness. American journal of Community Psychology. 41(1-2):127-150.
[28]Rafieian M, Rezaei M, Asgari A, Parhizkar A, Shayan S (2011). Conceptual Explanation of Resilience and Its Indexing in Community-Based Disaster Management (CBDM). The Journal of Spatial Planning. 15(4):19-42.
[29]Ray B (2017). Response of a resilient community to natural disasters: The Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, 2015. The Professional Geographer. 69(4):644-654.
[30]Rose A (2004). Defining and measuring economic resilience to disasters. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal. 13(4):307-314.
[31]Rezaei M (2013). Evaluatingthe economic and institutional resilience of urban communities to natural disasters using PROMETHE Technique, case study: Tehran districts. Journal of Crisis Management. 2(3):25-36.
[32]Renschler C S, Frazier A E, Arendt L A, Cimellaro G P, Reinhorn A M, Bruneau M (2010). Developing the ‘PEOPLES’resilience framework for defining and measuring disaster resilience at the community scale. In Proceedings of the 9th US national and 10th Canadian conference on earthquake engineering. 2010, 25-29 July; Toronto. pp. 25-29.
[33]Rezaei M, Rafieian M, Hosseini SM (2016). Measurement and evaluation of physical resilience of urban societies against earthquake; case study: Tehran Neighborhoods. Human Geography Research. 47(4):609-623.
[34]Rockefeller Foundation (2014). City resilience framework (City Resilience Index). London: Arup Publiction.
[35]Shaw R, Team I (2009). Climate disaster resilience: Focus on coastal urban cities in Asia. Asian Journal of Environment and Disaster Management. 1:101-116.
[36]UNISDR (2015). Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015 – 2030. Geneva: UNISDR.
[37]Safaei H (2005). Seismic study of faults around Isfahan. University of Isfahan.
[38]Taghvaei M, Jozei Khamse Louie A (2018). Urban crisis management and emergency evacuation of schools in two metropolitan areas of Isfahan. Journal of Urban Management Studies. 10(34):27-44.
[39]Turner ll BL (2010). Vulnerability and resilience: Coalescing or paralleling approaches for sustainability science?. Global Environmental Change. 20(4):570-576.